AGP Executive Report

Fuel Security: New Zealand’s fuel supply chain is running smoothly, with MBIE reporting petrol at 58.1 days’ cover, diesel at 44.2 days and jet fuel at 57.8 days, plus routine stock movements. Diesel Reserve: The first shipment of extra government-controlled diesel reserve has left for Marsden Point, due mid-June (16–18), with a second arriving early July—together covering about nine days of typical diesel use. Infrastructure Value for Money: WSP and the Helen Clark Foundation say Aotearoa lacks a mandatory, system-wide requirement to prove value for money in infrastructure decisions, with cost–benefit analysis used inconsistently across agencies. Logistics Property: ESR and Mitsubishi Estate Asia are partnering on a Western Sydney logistics estate at Huntingwood (up to 114,005 sqm), with construction due to start in the second half of 2026. Agritech Expansion: Trans Ova is expanding in Australia, appointing Helen Thoday to lead growth and support new IVF services. Governance & Industry Bodies: Finance and Mortgage Advisers Association of NZ (FAMNZ) is shutting down after failing to recruit enough members to stay viable. Energy Tech Policy Watch: Australia’s Electric Vehicle Council says electric trucks are being sidelined by diesel-focused freight curfews, parking fleets for up to half the day.**

Central Banking Watch: Global rates stay “higher for longer” as energy-driven inflation persists, with the US PCE gauge still showing firm price pressure. Trade Rules for Fisheries: WTO fishing-subsidy deal “Fish 2” could stall if India, Indonesia and the US don’t move, risking weaker protection for Pacific fishers and marine stocks. Māori Media & Knowledge: King’s Birthday Honours recognise broadcaster Dr Reuben Collier for preserving Māori stories and te reo through decades of work. Kiwifruit Industry: King’s Birthday Honours also lift Rotorua’s Russell Lowe, credited with key Hort16A breeding that underpinned Zespri Gold. Honours Round-up: More recipients include sport and governance leader Beatrice Faumuinā and state/judiciary figure Peter Boshier. Undersea Security: Malaysia and 16 partners launch a framework to defend critical underwater infrastructure, with NZ among the group. Auckland Transport: Hybrid-electric fast ferry Waitematā One is ready for Devonport—but charging infrastructure delays mean full electrification timing slips. Beef Prices: EU beef demand cools as prices stay high, while NZ readers will be watching the wider cost-of-steak pressure.

Undersea security: Seventeen countries, including New Zealand, have launched the GUIDE framework at the Shangri-La Dialogue to strengthen defence cooperation around critical underwater infrastructure like undersea cables and energy/telecom links. Defence industry tech transfer: Malaysia says it will consider arms deals only with partners willing to share and transfer technology to build local defence capability, and it met New Zealand defence officials during the same Singapore talks. Aviation capacity boost: Air New Zealand and Singapore Airlines are expanding the NZ–Singapore network for winter 2026/27, adding a new Christchurch–Singapore non-stop service and lifting alliance seat capacity by 17%. Water and bioresources: Rotorua biotech Cetogenix has landed a $23m UK grant to scale hydrothermal oxidation for bioresource management, moving its pre-commercial New Zealand tech toward full deployment. Health innovation: Auckland HBV specialist Dr Ed Gane presented early clinical results for Tune Therapeutics’ TUNE-401, reporting direct epigenetic silencing signals in chronic hepatitis B. Food prices pressure: Beef is hitting record highs, with analysts pointing to drought-driven herd shrinkage and tight supply as key drivers.

Defence & Maritime Cooperation: New Zealand and the Philippines are pushing to ratify a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement, with disaster risk reduction and joint exercises like Balikatan and Salaknib on the agenda after talks at Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue. Energy Market Rules: Parliament passed the Gas (Market Transparency) Amendment Bill, giving the government power to collect and publish clearer gas supply and demand data as reserves tighten. Auckland & Infrastructure Push: Budget 2026 backs Auckland with health land purchases, housing-enabling funding, and major transport and rail upgrades, aiming to lift growth across the country. Workplace Health Costs: Musculoskeletal injuries are driving more than 40% of ACC “week away from work” claims, with allied health demand rising in Greater Auckland. Food & Regional Resilience: Hastings and Central Hawke’s Bay mayors say new funding is a start, but more support is needed to protect New Zealand-grown food processing capacity after closures. Home Recovery & Wellness: Bay of Plenty buyers are driving demand for at-home infrared saunas and low-EMF, energy-efficient recovery setups. Transport & Tourism Demand: Group travel is keeping larger vehicle rentals busy across Auckland and the South Island, while cost-conscious travellers keep comparing rates for self-drive one-way trips. EV Reality Check: EV insurance premiums in Auckland can run notably higher than petrol equivalents, reflecting repair costs and specialist capacity. Oyster Industry Pressure: Bluff’s oyster season has ended early amid lower catch rates, higher fuel costs and weather impacts, squeezing the economics for growers.

NZX & Investment Mood: The NZX50 logged its best month since September as Vista Group jumped on cloud wins and Infratil surged after a CDC data-centre contract, while Asia tracked optimism around a US-Iran ceasefire. Budget 2026—Regional & Skills: Whanganui leaders welcomed trades apprenticeships, education and health funding, plus resilience training, but warned councils still need help maintaining roads and questioned KiwiRail’s impact. Primary Industries—Eggs Deal: Navis Capital Partners and PEP Gateway are set to acquire Mainland Poultry, New Zealand’s biggest egg supplier (about 40% of domestic consumption), using a continuation vehicle structure. Workplace & AI Pressure: Australia’s Fair Work Commission is reviewing processes after an estimated 70% workload surge linked partly to generative AI-assisted filings. Energy & Infrastructure: The Hydrogen Stream: JCN launched a hydrogen-powered backhoe loader, while Budget 2026 also pushed major roads and defence spending. Food & Drink—Wine in New Formats: The next generation of canned wine is gaining traction as producers lean into portability and clearer origin. Sports Tourism: Fieldays 2026 hubs are spotlighting careers in primary industries, with automation and AI featuring in the education push. Legal Spotlight: Kenneth Law is expected to plead guilty to aiding suicide in Ontario, after murder charges are withdrawn.

Hospital Infrastructure: Budget 2026 locks in “critical” early funding for Tauranga Hospital redevelopment, covering detailed design, site planning and enabling works ahead of later construction decisions. Aviation & Skills: Air NZ backs aircraft lease tax relief in Budget 2026, while the aviation industry warns a persistent engineering skills gap remains. Primary Sector Push: Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay says Budget 2026 provides $4.77b baseline MPI funding plus wilding pine control, on-farm emissions tech and a Primary Sector Growth Fund aimed at higher returns and productivity. Rural Economy & Policy: RBNZ Governor Anna Breman meets Hawke’s Bay rural leaders, flagging weaker growth, higher near-term inflation risks and squeezed margins. Transport Resilience: New Plymouth gets $50m for SH3 through Awakino Gorge after repeated weather closures, with mayors pressing for faster on-the-ground work. Energy & Logistics: Air cargo demand in Asia-Pacific is rising as Middle East capacity cuts and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty drive stockpiling, while airlines adjust capacity. Tech & Markets: NZX sentiment lifts as the NZX 50 posts its best month since September, led by Vista and Infratil. Food & Exports: Russia’s agricultural exports to China jump sharply, with frozen pollock, rapeseed oil and crabs among top categories. Tourism & Mobility: Auckland and Queenstown rental demand patterns reflect visitor flows and seasonal ski logistics, with operators repositioning fleets for winter peaks.

Dairy Industry Shake-up: Synlait is facing a fresh leadership churn, with its fifth CEO in six years and market focus on manufacturing ramp-up issues tied to a2 Milk and weaker whole milk powder prices. Rural Cost Pressure: New data shows rural whānau are spending up to a quarter of discretionary income on fuel, with petrol and diesel hitting isolated regions far harder than cities. Infrastructure & Transport Safety: Wairoa Bridge’s cycleway closure has sparked safety fears and calls for urgent repair after heavy rainfall damage left cyclists forced onto high-speed SH2. Science & Risk: University of Auckland research is rewriting the city’s earthquake and volcanic fault picture, finding dozens of previously unknown fault structures and more small quakes. Budget 2026 Watch: Treasury’s oil-shock assumptions are being questioned as forecasts lean optimistic while economists warn the fiscal path may be fragile. Media & Public Broadcasting: RNZ is reshaping its board and CEO search after multiple leadership departures, with ratings momentum again under scrutiny. Energy & Climate: A new study argues temporary carbon storage can’t legitimately offset CO2, but may still have a role in offsetting methane. Capital Markets: NZX50 trading was mixed as Mainfreight rose on results and Fonterra lifted outlook, while Stride Property faced fund wind-up decisions.

Budget 2026 & Housing Incentives: Finance Minister Nicola Willis’ third Budget keeps a tight rein on spending while bringing forward a return to surplus, and backs councils to consent more homes via a $400m Incentives for Growth Fund that pays more per dwelling as growth targets rise. Infrastructure Pipeline: The Budget also pushes a major roads and resilience push, including funding to extend the Waikato Expressway from Cambridge to Piarere, with transport groups urging the money turns into projects quickly. Trades & Skills: Fees-free tertiary is frozen and savings are redirected into Trades Academies and industry skills boards, with industry bodies calling it a positive step for future workforce supply. Energy & Transport Costs: RBNZ chair Anna Breman says supply disruption and costs will keep feeding prices, especially fuel, while Budget coverage flags possible deferral of fuel tax rises if petrol stays high. Aluminium & Power: Rio Tinto and Contact Energy move to restart NZAS Line 4 potline at Tiwai Point, targeting extra aluminium output and linking the smelter to new wind power. Dairy Outlook: Fonterra lifts earnings outlook and signals a farmgate milk price forecast at the top of expectations, lifting related market sentiment. Winter Tourism Demand: Vehicle hire demand is broadening beyond ski towns, with airports and regions seeing stronger demand for larger rental vehicles driven by family and group travel. Workplace Safety: One worker has died and another seriously injured after a Buckley Systems workplace accident in East Auckland. Research Funding Debate: Research sector voices warn Budget 2026 underinvests in research capability, arguing it’s vital for productivity and resilience. Climate & Nature Pushback: NGOs including WWF and Greenpeace say the Budget falls short on climate and biodiversity investment, with concerns about offshore emissions planning and conservation cuts. NZX Markets: NZX50 trading reflects Budget optimism tempered by Middle East uncertainty, with Mainfreight and dairy-linked stocks among notable movers.

RBNZ & Markets: New Zealand’s OCR stayed at 2.25% in a split decision, lifting the NZX50 and the kiwi as the bank signalled hikes are still likely later this year. Budget 2026 Watch: Budget Day is set to be a tight, politically charged one, with attention on health and secondary education funding, plus pressure to ease the Foreign Investment Fund “quasi-wealth tax” for offshore investors. Energy & Industry: Rio Tinto and Contact Energy have moved to restart Tiwai Point’s fourth potline, with 50MW lined up and potential for about $100m in annual export revenue. Water Infrastructure: Northland’s Ruakākā wastewater plan advances with a new Bream Bay pipeline and open-ocean outfall, aimed at unlocking development as the old plant nears capacity. Cybersecurity: A new survey says many Australian firms (including NZ respondents) expect ransomware attacks and are still more likely to pay ransoms than global averages. Trade & Defence: Japan is preparing talks to export its upgraded Mogami-class frigate to New Zealand, potentially reshaping regional naval interoperability. Agrifood Exports: Protein demand is pushing NZ milk and meat into higher-value exports, with commentary arguing this can lift margins but raises environmental pressure. Cruise Sector: Ministers are coordinating to reverse a 40% drop in cruise visitation, aiming to attract more ships and protect jobs.

RBNZ Rate Call: The Reserve Bank held the OCR at 2.25% but signalled hikes may come sooner and by more than expected, with Middle East-driven energy shocks still biting inflation and activity. Markets & Oil: Traders leaned into hopes for a US–Iran de-escalation that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pushing stocks higher while fresh US strikes kept nerves in check. Tiwai Power Deal: Southland’s mayor is upbeat after Contact Energy and Rio Tinto moved toward restarting Tiwai Point’s fourth potline, potentially adding 30,000 tonnes of aluminium a year by around 2030. Rural Connectivity Warning: A local wireless provider says Starlink’s rapid growth risks leaving rural NZ with too few alternatives if the satellite service falters. Justice Watch: Two alleged “money mules” were refused bail in an ACT scam probe, while disbarred lawyer Rohineet Sharma was acquitted of $600k laundering charges. Auckland Transport: Auckland Council named Steve Mutton as Transport and Infrastructure Director. Retail & Sport: Skims is set to land at Faradays, and Australia boosted Rugby League World Cup funding with a $12.4m package.

Budget Countdown: New Zealand’s Budget 2026 is already shaping up as a tight, politically loaded sprint—Finance Minister Nicola Willis has previewed billions in defence spending, public service cuts, and social housing changes, with a promised “major lift” in health funding still under wraps, plus expected updates on police, corrections, and courts. Monetary Watch: Markets are also bracing for the RBNZ OCR decision on Wednesday, with the kiwi bond yield easing ahead of Thursday’s Budget. Energy & Cost of Living: The Government’s “Stretch Every Tank” fuel-saving ads have already cost $3.55m, with EECA saying millions of drivers have engaged and estimated savings are running into the tens of millions. Climate Politics: Greens claim ETS auction failures have created a $1.4b fiscal hole; Willis rejects the framing. Markets: NZX50 climbed on strong F&P Healthcare results, while Infratil slipped after its update. Tech & Security: The FBI warns of “phishing-as-a-service” scams targeting Microsoft 365 users via fake verification flows.

Leadership Change (Meat): The Meat Industry Association has appointed Nick Beeby as chief executive from July 1, a move aimed at steadying strategy and market development after his recent run as CEO of the New Zealand Meat Board. Budget Pressure (Retail): Retail NZ is pushing Budget 2026 to prioritise economic growth and cost-of-living relief, arguing fuel and essentials are squeezing margins and confidence. Consumer Credit Crackdown: An unregistered lender, Nane Easy Loan Finance Services NZ, has been banned for two years after targeting vulnerable borrowers in South Auckland. Culture & Media: Auckland Theatre Company’s ATC debut of “Sons of Vao” brings the first Niuean story to its main stage. Pacific Connectivity: Australia and New Zealand have helped Tonga complete its second international undersea cable, boosting resilience and capacity. Aviation/Travel: Air New Zealand is cutting more services, citing jet fuel pressures, while the retired Interislander ferry Vega has finally been cleared to sail to India for scrapping. Security (West Papua): Violence in West Papua is escalating, with calls growing to remove Indonesia from key Pacific regional groups. Science Spotlight: Science New Zealand Awards winners were announced, with GenomNZ taking the Supreme Award.

Gas Transition Loans: The Government has opened gas transition loans to thousands of NZ firms, with lenders backed to cut risk and potentially lower rates, as industry groups warn gas supply is tightening and some businesses are already shrinking or shutting. Markets & Energy: NZX50 slipped ahead of F&P Healthcare’s earnings, while oil fell nearly 5% on hopes of US–Iran progress, easing bond-yield pressure. Policy Scrutiny: Lawyers warn key fossil-fuel policies may breach trade rules, and RNZ reports more than $1m in political donations linked to fast-tracked projects since 2022, keeping the fast-track debate hot. Health & Food: New research argues ultra-processed foods are engineered to drive cravings and higher intake, even as consumption keeps rising. Sport & Diplomacy: Mexico says it will host Iran’s World Cup team after the US refused, with FIFA coordinating the move to Tijuana. Business & Tech: F&P Healthcare weighs on the NZX50; elsewhere, KiwiSaver satisfaction is up but low-income savers and women risk falling behind.

Gas Transition Loans: New Zealand has unveiled a $1.2b government-backed loan guarantee to help businesses cut gas use by at least 15% while keeping output up, with the Crown guaranteeing 80% of eligible bank loans and $48m set aside for potential losses ahead of Budget 2026. Market Watch: The NZX50 slipped 0.2% as exporters and commercial landlords weighed on sentiment, while Oceania Healthcare rose on a broker-positive read and F&P Healthcare edged down ahead of earnings. Consumer Safety: Asbestos has been found in Planet Fun children’s toys, triggering a recall and instructions to stop using affected products immediately. Sports & Culture: The Warriors are set to return to Eden Park for next year’s Anzac Round, and tributes continue after Dame Jools Topp died aged 68. Tech & Retail: An Adobe report says APAC shoppers are more open to AI-assisted purchasing, but many still want the option to switch to a human.

RBNZ Rate Watch: Economists are split ahead of Wednesday’s OCR call, with uncertainty sharpened by the Middle East oil shock and ASB warning the worst economic disruption from the Strait of Hormuz could spread well beyond fuel. Household Pressure: ASB says the shock will ripple through freight, fertiliser, packaging and food, hitting essentials while discretionary spending softens. Auckland Climate Reality Check: Auckland’s transport emissions cuts plan is under strain, with targets looking increasingly out of reach as funding tightens and councillors clash with staff over what can be delivered. Space Minister Exit: Judith Collins leaves Parliament with a mixed record—praised for regulatory and partnership work, but criticised for not digging deeper into the failed MethaneSAT mission and for a need to pull more local investment into space. Education Fight: Teachers are pushing back on planned changes that would fold food and nutrition into health, arguing kids need life skills they may not get at home. NZ Post Fallout: A 700-signature petition is growing after a community loses NZ Post services, forcing residents to travel for basic errands. Global Desk: Rubio starts a first official India trip amid trust-gap diplomacy, while NATO ministers set up July’s Ankara summit around the 5% defence spending target.

Climate policy scrutiny: A report claims New Zealand’s climate law reform text “closely mirrored” lobbyist wording, reigniting questions about who shaped the policy and how transparent the drafting process really was. Maritime security row: The Maritime Union calls the Government’s $1.5b maritime security push an “expensive distraction,” arguing the biggest risks sit close to shore and warning domestic infrastructure is in “managed decline.” Wilding pine funding boost: Budget 2026 adds $79m over three years to the National Wilding Conifer Control Programme, lifting total spend to $109m and aiming to protect farmland, water and biodiversity while cutting wildfire risk. Mining vs conservation: A Green Party bill to ban new mining on public conservation land has been drawn from Parliament’s ballot, pushing the fight over protected areas back into the spotlight. Tech and trade: Smartphone imports are surging globally, while APEC ministers stress resilient supply chains and AI-ready trade as Middle East tensions rattle energy routes. Sports & culture: Auckland FC make history with an OFC Pro League win; and NZ’s space ambitions get a lift as Rocket Lab secures approval for test launches.