AGP Executive Report

Markets & Energy: NZX50 slipped as US-Iran tensions lifted oil and spooked investors, dragging logistics and aviation names; Stats NZ also moves to more monthly economic reporting from 2027. Small Business Tech: Government backs AI support for 600,000 small firms via AcceleratorNZ expansion and AI tools for Business Mentors NZ. Primary Industries Push: Fieldays headlines $110m for methane-busting tech and livestock innovation, plus a Safer Farms report urging tech-led prevention to cut farm deaths and serious injuries. Food & Fibre Outlook: LMC says softer consumer demand is weighing on beef prices, while MPI flags NZ primary exports are set to hit record levels. Aquaculture Pressure: Seafood sector dips, with Northland flagged as key for recovery as mussel spat shortages and harvest constraints bite. Climate Resilience: Lower Hutt is selected for an EU-backed Climacare project to protect vulnerable residents from extreme heat. Transport & Safety: RNZ reports a Wellington train derailment “effectively ran a red light,” with staff injured and calls for stronger safety systems. Illicit Tobacco: New report warns illicit cigarettes now hit one in three smokes, driven by cost-of-living pressure and rising prices. Science & Environment: Deep-sea research finds a 5.3-million-year whale “necropolis” in the Indian Ocean.

Primary Exports: New Zealand’s food and fibre export outlook is tipped to hit a record $64.3b for the year to 30 June 2026, with dairy, red meat, kiwifruit and apples all expected to lift returns. Energy Policy: RNZ reports officials tried to redact MBIE modelling that suggests LNG “need” could be low, even in some scenarios, as the government presses ahead with a Taranaki LNG import facility. Capital Markets: The OECD is again flagging New Zealand’s shallow capital markets and high capital costs as a drag on investment, while local market leaders argue reforms are needed to make funding cheaper. Finance Sector: Private credit keeps expanding, with Aotea Asset Management highlighting rapid growth in corporate and infrastructure lending. Tourism Funding: Tourism operators are urging the next government to lock in a sustainable funding model, with ideas like a bed levy to fund visitor infrastructure. Transport Safety: A Wellington train derailment risked lives after a passenger train ran a red light at Khandallah, with KiwiRail pointing to the value of safety barriers. Rugby League Pathways: A push to grow rugby league player depth points to South Africa and New Zealand’s South Island as potential talent pipelines. World Cup Logistics: Iran’s squad says US visa denials are creating “tension” ahead of World Cup matches in the US. Media & Deals: The EU is probing the Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros Discovery merger over Middle Eastern funding, even as other countries clear it.

Primary Sector Funding: At Fieldays, the Government backed $59m in projects (total $143m) to lift productivity across beef and sheep, dairy, kiwifruit, forestry and aquaculture, including a five-year kiwifruit programme aimed at “more value from less.” Kiwifruit Productivity: A separate $48m kiwifruit plan focuses on orchard productivity, better water and nutrient use, and alternatives to current Psa controls. Rural Health Access: Fieldays’ Health and Wellbeing Hub is expanding to tackle stigma and improve access for rural communities, with new stalls including Fertility Associates and Sexual Wellbeing Aotearoa. Climate Politics for Farmers: ACT used Fieldays to push a “split-gas” emissions target and argue methane should be treated differently, while promising not to “sacrifice farmers” for Paris targets. Energy & Power Costs: RNZ broke down winter electricity costs, with hot water and heat pumps highlighted as the biggest levers for households. Finance & Compliance: ASB faces the highest AML/CFT civil penalty ever in NZ—$6.731m—after breaches tied to transaction monitoring and customer due diligence. Trade & Security: Customs seized cocaine worth about $35m from a Tauranga shipping container, underscoring pressure on organised crime targeting supply chains. Business & Leadership: Goodnature promoted two co-CEOs in Wellington as it continues exporting pest-control tech globally. Property Watch: Trade Me Property data shows asking prices falling for three straight months, with Auckland down sharply.

Natural Hazards & Insurance: IAG NZ warns New Zealand’s natural hazard risk reduction is “ad hoc and piecemeal”, calling for a long-term 15-year government roadmap to fix a fragmented system that limits councils, businesses and households. SME Survival: Stats NZ data shows only 27% of SMEs founded in 2015 were still operating in 2025, with franchise operators faring better than independent small businesses. Ag Tech at Fieldays: Fieldays is set to showcase a booming rural economy, with drones now used across NZ farms for safer, more precise work—up from just a few years ago. Logistics & Competition: Freightways says new customs levies are distorting the courier market in favour of NZ Post and should be revoked. Energy Policy: IAG also flags flood-prone property risk-based pricing changes, while the wider debate continues over how LNG and winter reliability plans affect power bills. Housing Development: Queenstown’s build-to-rent push is expanding under fast-track consent, with a major jump in planned rental apartments. Cybercrime Crackdown: A US-led operation with FBI and partners, including NZ, took down scam networks in Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, arresting 63 people and freezing millions in crypto. Wellington Weather: A state of emergency remains for coastal swells and strong winds, with evacuation notices extended.

Energy Security & LNG: New Zealand is moving ahead with an LNG import facility aimed at “dry-year” power backup, with Energy Minister Simeon Brown saying it could be operational by 2028 and save up to $800m a year by easing wholesale prices, while the government also consults on a winter energy reliability obligation. Rural Labour: ACT is pushing a new Rural Workforce Visa for dairy, sheep and beef work, arguing current immigration settings can’t fix chronic farm labour shortages and proposing exemptions from a $6-a-day infrastructure surcharge. Electricity Transition: Hawke’s Bay business leaders gathered for a regional energy summit on electrification, pricing pressures, and funding pathways for investment. Geothermal Push: Cabinet has released the remaining $55m for GeoShot NZ to drill New Zealand’s first superhot geothermal well. Biosecurity: Auckland Airport’s detector dog Sophie found undeclared food carried by crew and passengers, triggering $400 infringement notices. Aged Care Deal: MinterEllison advised Stonepeak on its acquisition of Estia Health, with the transaction expected to close in late 2026. Retail & Food: PAK’nSAVE marked 10 years as NZ’s top fairness brand in the Kantar RepZ index. Tech & Industry: Gentrack has added senior leadership across product, technology and marketing to support its global utility intelligence platform. Health & Safety: Doctors warn hair-transplant medical tourism could spread undetected skin cancers and infections if checks aren’t done. Markets: NZ shares jumped over 1.2% at close as global tech steadied. Disaster Watch: A 7.8 quake in the Philippines has killed at least 37 and displaced more than 20,000, with tsunami impacts reported as limited.

International Property Insurance: Willis has expanded its international property facility, lifting automatic follow capacity to US$60m per placement and widening coverage across Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand and more, with appetite spanning industrial, infrastructure, manufacturing and transport. Aviation Costs: Airlines are bracing for margin pressure as jet fuel prices and aircraft delivery delays bite; IATA says global net profits could halve in 2026 as fuel costs surge. NZ Markets: The NZX50 fell 0.9% in a global rout, with power companies sliding after draft approval for Lake Pūkaki contingent storage raised electricity price concerns. Trade Policy Shock: The US is proposing 10%–12.5% tariffs under Section 301 over forced-labour import claims across 60 economies, with comments open until early July. NZ Supply Chain Risk: A report warns NZ’s generic medicines supply could be disrupted if shipping restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz worsen. Auckland Industrial Boom: Graeme Hart’s Wiri industrial push is highlighted as prime industrial vacancy stays tight, with logistics consolidation driving demand. Mining & Permitting: Rua Gold’s positive PEA for its Auld Creek gold-antimony project in Reefton advances a fast-track pathway for a potential underground operation. Security & Fraud: A US-led crackdown with FBI and partners, including New Zealand, took down 1m+ scam accounts and froze crypto tied to forced scam operations in Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar. Earthquake & Regional Impacts: A 7.8 quake in the Philippines triggered deaths, injuries and tsunami waves, while NZ authorities say there’s no tsunami threat.

Markets & FX: NZX50 slid 0.9% to 13,038.24 as global risk-off hit tech and power stocks; exporters like A2 Milk and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare gained on a softer kiwi. Energy & Power: Forsyth Barr flagged potential electricity-price pressure tied to Meridian’s draft approval for contingent hydro storage at Lake Pūkaki. Aviation & Fuel Shock: Airlines are bracing for profits to be cut in half after Iran-linked fuel and route disruptions; IATA says 2026 profit forecasts have been slashed. Trade & Industry: The government has ordered a safeguard investigation into aluminium extrusion imports, with a possible provisional duty within two months over alleged dumped Asian supply. Food & Agritech: Lacto Japan invested in NZ Rubisco protein maker Leaft Foods, backing a push into “better-for-you” ingredients. Rural Conservation Policy: National pledges to double QEII National Trust baseline funding to $8.5m/year ahead of Fieldays, boosting landowner-led covenants. Regulation Watch: A GMO HSNO amendment bill is criticised as a “red alert” for NZ primary exporters, while MedSafe warns about unapproved peptide products sold online. Regional Resilience: Australia and NZ will deepen Pacific support on supply chain and fuel costs, alongside defence and security cooperation.

Winter Energy Payment: A new look at the Winter Energy Payment says it’s losing bite as energy prices rise, with almost one third of NZ households facing energy hardship and cold, damp homes costing the country more than $38m a year—sparking calls for smarter targeting and alternatives. Auckland Earthquake Risk: Scientists have confirmed an active Mangatangi Fault near Auckland, with research suggesting a possible up-to 6.8 quake if it ruptures—raising fresh urgency for local preparedness. Construction & Manufacturing: Fisher & Paykel’s $220m Penrose HQ is nearing completion, with the mass-timber research and design site set to house about 1,000 staff. Infrastructure Planning: WSP and the Helen Clark Foundation push a “measuring what matters” approach, arguing benefits are loud but social impacts from big projects are often quiet. Agribusiness & Food: Farmers’ durum wheat is being used for a Kiwi-made pasta brand built on regenerative practices, aiming to lift arable innovation. Energy & Tech: A UN report warns AI could consume 3% of global electricity by 2030, driven by the Jevons paradox. Health Policy: A deep dive finds New Zealand still can’t reliably say how many vape shops operate, despite past promises to cap numbers. Aviation & Defence: NZ is set to receive five MH-60R Seahawk helicopters after US approval, as defence modernisation continues.

Agriculture Policy: Federated Farmers is pushing parties to scrap resource consents and replace them with farm plans, arguing farmers don’t need extra “scrutiny” on top of existing requirements. Aviation & Freight: Global airline chiefs meet in Rio facing an Iran-driven fuel shock plus aircraft delivery delays, with IATA warning margins are under pressure and capacity may tighten. Defence Procurement: New Zealand is set to buy five MH-60R Seahawk helicopters after US approval, adding to the country’s defence modernisation push. Energy & Homes: A Christchurch solar trial aims to cut power bills for five years, while Meridian gets draft approval to use contingent lake storage. Property Watch: Auckland vs Christchurch listings show buyers get more space and newer homes in Christchurch at the same price points. AI & Rights: Copyright Licensing NZ says New Zealand lacks AI-specific rules for creative and commercial work, calling for a low-cost tribunal-style complaints process. Construction & Economy: Reports highlight how delays and a construction slowdown are costing the country billions. Sports Business: World Cup warm-ups in the US draw international crowds, but ticket pricing and scheduling controversies keep attention on the event’s commercial model.

Defence Procurement: The US has approved a potential $1.5b Foreign Military Sale to New Zealand for five MH-60R Seahawk helicopters, aimed at replacing the RNZN’s aging Seasprite fleet and boosting anti-submarine, surveillance and strike capability. Construction & Economy: Stats NZ data shows Auckland’s building slump is dragging the wider economy, with construction job losses hitting hardest in the region and non-residential activity down sharply. Energy & Housing: Fletcher Living’s Christchurch solar trial promises “power-bill free” for five years, but comes with a $30,000 premium and relies on estimated savings that the trial will test. Agriculture & Safety: ACC reports 2025 work-related agricultural injuries costing $119m, with a push for farmers to prioritise injury prevention as winter workloads shift. Food & Health Policy: Pharmac’s potential move toward funding Wegovy spotlights New Zealand’s obesity scale and the debate over whether weight-loss drugs can tackle a problem rooted in broader social and environmental drivers. Materials & Industry: Analyst notes are upbeat on materials-linked stocks Sims and RPM International, pointing to continued interest in industrial and basic materials plays. Sustainability Tech: A new superyacht concept, Project Zero, is designed to generate its own energy onboard using regenerative systems and large solar thermal/photovoltaic areas.

Trans-Tasman Trade & Defence: Prime ministers Christopher Luxon and Anthony Albanese say Australia–NZ ties are “in the best shape” ever, pushing “seamless economic integration” with business leaders on supply-chain resilience, tech research and defence industry cooperation. Budget 2026 Watch: Treasury’s Budget 2026 material details Finance vote items, including major cost lines tied to institutions, housing and international financial commitments. Beef Outlook: Rabobank expects global beef production to keep tightening through 2026, supporting firm prices even as NZ farmgate levels soften slightly with supply coming online. Energy & Shipping Pressure: A report on the Strait of Hormuz highlights how fuel-linked input costs and freight rates are hitting NZ-to-US logistics and downstream manufacturing margins. Forestry Rules: New commercial forestry standards take effect, setting bottom-line slash and erosion controls—sparking debate over whether they balance certainty for investors with ongoing environmental risk. Conservation: Rees Valley in Otago is now home to NZ’s largest wild takahē population outside Fiordland after 86 birds were released since Feb 2025. AI for Business: A study of mid-sized NZ firms finds AI gains depend on progress across governance, workforce capability and core processes—not just adopting tools.

Undersea Security: Seventeen countries including New Zealand have launched GUIDE, a voluntary framework to share best practice and improve early warning for attacks on critical underwater telecoms and energy cables. Fuel & Aviation: Jet fuel inventories are flagged as dangerously low, with airlines and regulators watching the Strait of Hormuz-linked shock closely as supply risk rises. NZ Markets: The NZX50 slipped 0.6% for the week amid Middle East and oil worries, even as some local stocks bounced on healthcare and banking deal momentum. Energy & Water: Meridian has received draft approval to access extra contingent storage in Lake Pūkaki, aiming to reduce wholesale volatility and support retail competition. Lake Monitoring: Otago Regional Council will install a data-collecting buoy on Lake Hāwea to track water quality and give earlier warnings of degradation. Racing Governance: New Zealand’s racing codes face potential funding shortfalls from TAB NZ reserves unless they agree on a shared future plan, raising the risk of fewer races or lower stakes. Defence Procurement: The US has cleared a potential $1.5b helicopter sale to New Zealand as part of defence modernisation. Mining & Metals: Rua Gold’s positive PEA for its Auld Creek gold-antimony project in Reefton under fast-track permitting keeps NZ’s resources pipeline in focus. Food & Trade: The US forced-labour tariff proposal includes New Zealand for some goods but leaves beef and kiwifruit out, adding uncertainty for processors and exporters. Environment & Access: Queenstown’s climbing community is working with Pioneer Energy after access to Wye Creek was closed for safety following heavy public use.

Kiwifruit Industry: Shane Jones says Zespri’s licence system unfairly excludes multiply owned Māori land, arguing Zespri should offer lease-style access rather than upfront costs. Markets & Finance: NZX50 closed higher on Friday but the week stayed slightly down as Middle East tensions lifted oil and dented risk appetite; Heartland surged on its TSB merger deal while Spark bounced off a 15-year low. Transport & Infrastructure: Ashburton’s second bridge project moves into a six-month roundabout phase at the South Street/Chalmers Avenue intersection, aiming to cut disruption by building the roundabout largely independently. Energy & Aviation: IATA’s Rio summit opens with airlines facing a jet fuel shock from the Iran war, with carriers weighing fare rises, route cuts and climate fuel constraints. Ports & Freight: Upper North Island mayors toured Marsden Point as the Marsden Point Rail Link design sprint progresses, with $410m allocation reaffirmed. Housing: Kāinga Ora’s $75m Whangārei development opened, replacing tents and overcrowding with 95 homes for about 320 people. Media & Streaming: BBC Studios appointed Liz Baldwin to lead streaming and channels strategy across Australia and New Zealand.

Aviation & Fuel Security: Air Canada tells customers it expects no jet fuel shortage to disrupt summer flights, after earlier Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz concerns rattled the industry. Aviation Leadership: Billie Moore, chief executive of the New Zealand Airports Association, is taking a new global role with aviation regulator OneReg focused on government affairs and regulatory relations. Digital Crime Crackdown: Meta, Microsoft and Coinbase helped disrupt Southeast Asia scam networks, taking down 1.4m accounts and freezing US$3.8m in crypto, with 63 arrests and NZ among participating jurisdictions. Geopolitical Cyber Threats: Five Eyes warns China is using fake job ads on LinkedIn/Indeed/Upwork to recruit spies and probe access to sensitive roles. Telecom & Local Impact: A Papamoa family’s fight against a planned Spark cell tower highlights how infrastructure decisions land on neighbourhoods. Health & Care Closer to Home: A new Northland radiation oncology service is set to cut years of travel for patients, with a purpose-built facility linking radiology and oncology. Construction & Housing Pressure: NZ home building hits a 10-year low as construction activity softens, feeding wider affordability concerns. Markets: NZX50 dips as Middle East nerves persist, with building, telecom and retail stocks under pressure. Food & Industry: Heinz reports revenue down 10% as it weighs closure costs, while NZ gene-tech rule delays are flagged as a competitiveness risk for agribusiness. Trade & Policy: OECD ministers, including NZ’s Todd McClay, meet on getting industrial policies right for open markets.

Housing & Construction: New Zealand home building slid to a 10-year low, with residential construction down 5% to $17.6b in the year to March as buyer confidence stayed weak and developers held back. Non-residential work is also falling faster, with Q1 building commencements down 5.9% year-on-year. Payments & Competition: The Commerce Commission has proposed capping Mastercard and Visa commercial credit card interchange fees, aiming to cut business costs by $40m a year. Finance Sector Rules: The Reserve Bank says all licensed deposit takers can use “bank” branding from December 2028, reshaping competition in retail finance. Energy & Risk: Fuel security remains in the spotlight after Shane Jones criticised WorkSafe tank upgrade rules. Food & Manufacturing: Heinz Wattie’s NZ returned to profit, but confirmed closures of Auckland, Dunedin and Christchurch sites and phased-out product categories. Trade Pressure: The US has proposed 12.5% tariffs tied to forced-labour claims, with New Zealand named among affected economies. Primary Industries: A seasonal closure on the Chatham Rise fishery will protect orange roughy spawning, a “significant jolt” for the industry. Tech & Cybersecurity: Anthropic expanded its AI cybersecurity programme Glasswing to include Australia and New Zealand organisations.

Trade & Tariffs: The US has proposed new tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, citing failures to curb goods made with forced labour—an approach trading partners say is unjustified and likely to raise costs across global supply chains, including for New Zealand exporters. Auckland Infrastructure: A new NZTA market-sounding report warns a privately funded second Auckland harbour bridge is “unlikely to achieve value for money,” with major contractors showing stronger preference for a tunnel option despite higher upfront cost. Construction & Logistics: CBRE flags Auckland’s biggest active industrial build as a $1b logistics hub at 352–358 Puhinui Rd (Wiri), with first warehouses due soon and long-term leasing planned. Energy & Industry Skills: IChemE has opened registration for ChemEngConnect 2026, a free two-week virtual conference focused on chemical engineering’s biggest challenges, including AI, decarbonisation and safety. Tourism & Skiing: NZSki is pushing ahead with a fast-track Remarkables expansion, including a 2.7km 10-seat gondola, aiming to nearly double capacity and lift Queenstown-Lakes visitor spend. Housing & Building Quality: The Court of Appeal upholds a $500k award in an Auckland leaky home case, reinforcing consequences for concealed moisture damage. Consumer & Markets: The NZX50 slips amid Middle East uncertainty and softer investor sentiment, while building consents data supports some property and materials stocks. Biosecurity: MPI confirms an Auckland scorpion found in a bathroom likely came from overseas travel.